Clay Shirky on lovely business models (and bubbles)
In one of the opening “provocations” at Supernova 2007, Clay Shirky noted how we are shifting from thinking about solidity of edifice to solidity of process. He uses as metaphor the beautiful Shinto shrines (神社). As all dissipative systems those temples are built to stay through change, i.e., what stays is the shape or the process, and not the dead materials. He also made a beautiful quote:
Standing from today, looking towards the future, you will make more accurate predictions about software, and, in this web-driven world, about services, if you ask yourself not “what’s the business model?” but rather “do the people who like it take care of each other?” That turns out to be the better predictor of longevity.
Nice proposal, to Keep lovely feelings close, specially now that the bubble smells like it is about to be crushed for the second time. Kevin Marks has old indicators:
When expensively educated, fashionable young graduates start showing up in your field, you’re in a bubble.
I tend to use baroque (as in visible statement of the wealth and power) as my key indicator of a bubble that is about to burst.
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